What is the mechanism that makes you pull the trigger before you buy a piece of art? Sometimes you find that perfect piece within your budget and that makes the decision easy. But I'll bet that more often than not these days your art purchases are made out of fear--fear that you won't find the thing you're looking for at this price level again. Here are a couple of examples of what I consider to be recent fear based purchases...
The first begins as a reaction to the sale of the ASM 6 page 12 (above) by Steve Ditko which sold in ComicLink's May auction for a record price of $64,000, and the ASM 30 page 16 (below) by Ditko that sold in the same auction for a healthy price of $36,000.
Shortly after these two pages sold, another page from ASM 30 p 2 (below) sold off of Nostalgic Investments website for $32,000. This is my subjective opinion at work here--but this is a page that should have sold for much less. There is no great shot of Spider-man which I believe is essential for a page that crosses the 30k barrier. This is a page that sold out of the FEAR that they were about to be priced out of the ASM Ditko market.
My second example of a fear based sale begins with the sale of the ASM 106 cover by Romita Sr.(below)at the ComicConnect auction last week for the very healthy price of $38,500.
A day or two after the 106 cover auction closed, this cover (below), the ASM 118 cover, also by Romita, sold for the full price of 30k off the Romitaman website. This cover had been on Burkey's site for well over a year at this price with no takers. Even though I think that the 118 is a nice cover, and in the interest of full disclosure I used to own it, I feel it's safe to say that FEAR of being priced out of the ASM Romita cover market was IMO the reason behind this quick purchase.
Whatever your reasons for buying art may be--my advice is to at least love the art a little bit before you let the FEAR of being priced out take over. Or at least make sure you know the reason why you're pulling the trigger.
It's not all fear. Record prices tend to attract speculation that values are heading higher and profits become a motivator not just fear. Couple this with true limited supply as in the case of Ditko ASM and Romita ASM cvrs. and you've got a perfect storm for a boom. It's acute for Ditko, since there appear to be no cvrs. and very few splashes available. So ANY interiors become attractive prospects.
ReplyDelete--Hans
I think that you're referring to greed, Hans. Greed is more of a factor as we move up the food chain. The pieces I highlighted here are lesser examples and as such I assume are being purchased by collectors afraid of being priced out of the market. Those buying the best at the top of the market are motivated more by greed and profit. The thought there is to buy the best example that will increase by many multiples in the future.
DeleteIt's true greed might be more of a factor as you move up the food chain. But the Ditko market is a unique animal in that almost ANY interior pg. seems to have a rising scale of value. You don't need to buy the best of the best to have some skin in the greed game.
DeleteAt the same time let's not confuse greed at all levels of the food chain with sensible and smart buying decisions. Collectors see rising values for Ditko ASM and Romita ASM covers that have performed better than most blue chip stocks. That's got to be a consideration as part of their buying decision as well. Remember it's not just about the love of the art anymore. At these high prices it's also about liquidity, resale capability, and a future exit strategy. So I do see some fear buying together with greed, but that's still not all of it.
Fair point.
DeleteI don't agree with your comment Glen that "those buying the best at the top of the market are motivated more by greed and profit" - this may be the case sometimes I agree but its surely not always the case. Who wouldnt want to have the best example of a particular artist or storyline in their collection. To be able to look at such a piece on the wall must be wonderful, "For everything else there's Mastercard...."
DeleteI don't think I said always.
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I would also hesitate to call it fear. To me, it looks more like desperation. In the current bull market, a lot of collectors are looking to upgrade their collections. As such, when prime Ditko and Kirby pieces come to market they go for a high price.
ReplyDeleteHowever, as the prices increase, so does the incentive for collectors holding these pages to sell. Remember all the DKR pages that started showing up after the Heritage auction last year? Buyers need to stop feeling too much pressure to grab any quality piece that shows up. Believe me, more great pages are coming to market.
-Dan Jerome
I think a lot of collectors are holding on to quality pieces right now. Especially those who don't really need cash. With prices in flux as they are no collector wants to sell themselves short if they perceive the market is moving upward at a fast pace. So while I agree that we will see more pages come to market as prices increase I still think there's a lot of great stuff being held in check until the perception is we've hit a market top.
ReplyDeleteDid you confirm that Mike sold the 118 cover for full price..cash?
ReplyDeletePaul D
Yes Paul.
ReplyDeleteFear can put a collector on edge.You start thinking, these prices are getting out of hand. I'll never get another shot.However I believe more than ever that speculators are after everything,not just the rarified air of an ASM 328 cover or the DK splash.Not fear but ego and investment = power.
ReplyDeleteThere is an ASM Ditko interior page on comic link right now bid up to 47k.That's not a collector afraid he'll never get an ASM Ditko this good.(see for yourselves, it's a sweet page)but..there are other attractive ASM pages for less that would calm fear.I say these wild prices are coming from speculative buyers with money to burn.I also believe the top auction houses and OA dealers have novice speculators with big cash eager to grab "hot" selections.Yes, I'm saying it.Dealers and auction houses are having their way with the ill informed with deep pockets. Every page is becoming "one of the finest examples we've seen." When will the house of cards fall?
It happens all the time with money clients and stock brokers. I saw it in comic book collecting. I watched a guy hand over 50k for comics picked by the seller over a six month period. The buyer had no opinion other than "what's hot?"Money and fear were not issues.
To be fair to Glen, would all collectors viewing this blog give one example of buying something out of fear? For me it was an All Star Western 10 page. I bid/paid a really high amount for it and realized I was being shill bid.To my knowledge they had never come up for sale before. I'm thinking this may be my only chance.I had no prior price comparisons.I was lost at sea.It was an un pleasant experience.Fear can make you do funny things Glen. No doubt about it.
Michael kenyon CAF
Thanks Michael, I'm sure there is some truth to what you say. I 've also seen veteran collectors who know the market participate in the latest feeding frenzy as well.
DeleteI thought this was a great article and I'm in total agreement - on certain key artists. I think that's the part that gets tricky in all of this is that it's not always obvious whose art will go nuts and whose won't, and when fear should drive things and when it shouldn't.
ReplyDeleteI'm an 80s/90s art guy so when I got into this hobby in the late 90s my goals were guys like McFarlane, Liefeld, Portacio, Lee, Art Adams, etc. At the time(1999) all of it was relatively tough to find great examples of, but modest ones were to be had. The difference was in how the prices moved.
I found a couple of great Portacio pieces then for a few hundred, and 5 years later I could still find other great examples in a similar price range. Even today you can find UXM panel pages for under $1k with great characters on them. The market has never truly induced fear and by all rights you could continue to hold out and wait for a perfect piece to come along. You don't really NEED a placeholder piece to hedge the price increase because it's fairly gradual.
Liefeld was another odd example. In the late 90s there wasn't a lot of his great art available because it was held by people who'd overpaid for it and speculated on his greatness. In a lot of cases his art was dropping in price steadily for that decade and only started to rebound in the last 5 years. So there, you would have done best waiting for the best art instead of searching it out.
McFarlane on the other hand was the golden boy of price surge. In 1999 I saw two huge splashes sell on eBay for $1k. I figured that if these went for $1k a great panel page should be like $500. Never saw one. I'd hear of pages selling privately, see a couple after the fact, but there simply wasn't much out there. Nothing to buy. And then the prices started surging. I saw a page that went for $450 one year sell for $3000 2 years later and then $4500 the year after that. Today that page would probably get $12-15k. And after watching and searching for years looking for a solid example, fear did finally kickstart me into buying something as a placeholder when I saw a solid panel with a great Spidey for $3k. But I think what the fear did though, was not to make me buy something I didn't like, but to dig deeper into my pockets to overpay for something. So I didn't buy garbage, but I also didn't get the perfect example I dreamed of. Today that page is probably worth $10k+ and continues to rise as I watch most McFarlane art shoot out of my price range. So in that case I'm incredibly happy I did let fear influence me, or else I could still be looking and kicking myself for not getting a good piece when I could.
-Jason
That's great Jason. If you know you're overpaying, love is an important ingredient to add to the mix.
Deletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/silver-wine-art-and-gold-swag-protect-inflation
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GXcLVDhS8fM
ReplyDeletegreat thread here. but iam wondering. if they are no ditko spiderman covers or splashes on the market where are they. ? did ditko get all his covers. i know a ton of art was ripped off from marvel back in the day. but i have to wonder what did ditko get back from marvel. and if one day he passes on will his family dump his art on the open market and what will that do for current prices. hummm. larry.
ReplyDeleteThe Ditko Spidey cvrs. and splashes I know exist for a fact are concentrated in the hands of a few collectors but that in no way accounts for the lionshare of his art. Numerous pages, splashes, and covers have yet to surface. Hearsay is that Ditko himself still possesses a few complete stories but I've heard no mention of any cover art. Although many theories abound, the whereabouts of most of the Ditko ASM cvrs. is largely a mystery as are the whereabouts of most of the Marvel cvrs. from the '61-65 period.
ReplyDelete--Hans
i always thought the ASM 118 wuz a nice cover.
ReplyDeleteMebbe a little crammed, but just about everything you'd want, (I guess, I'm not a spidey fan, so whadda I know, right?).
(Sorry, I didn't read all of the comments above, so if this is redundant) but it seems there's, what I would consider, a strong, but artificial price jump for ASM covers before issue 100. However, given that starting with issue 80, you're already in the 1970s, which most people consider the start of the bronze age. My only point being, seems like a darn good time to be buying ASM > 100 covers ;)
With respect to sellers everywhere, too many times a seller has told me 'I sold X for 20K', only to hear from buyer of 'X' that the deal was TRADE valued at 20K...a very different thing.
ReplyDeleteBut your point about fear buying is a good one. You provided two cases in which 'lessor' examples sold based on better examples recent sales. Like it or not, we are investors now at this price level. Both Ditko and Romita are still alive, and I wish them 'cento anni' (100 years) as the Italians say. However reality is that when they die, the value of their art will increase, even if they aren't producing anymore. So, I'd say that those secondary purchases are only somewhat obvious and perhaps not too agile plays at investment...with the owners of not quite "A" examples the apparent winner for the moment.
Lastly, some collectors wait out a need until the perfect example comes along. Others will fill it with a B example until they find their A example. These purchases may have been either here. One man's B is another man's A!
Rob
This was a great post, I think it also has something to do with losers remorse. I know there have been a few instances where I have lost a piece at auction and really thought about pulling the trigger for a lesser example off a dealer website for similar money. Fortunately that temptation did not hold sway and I didn't buy the piece. I think it really is combo of fear and remorse, they say pain is temporary, losing lasts forever in sports, I think in OA we as collectors need to remind ourselves that we can compound a loss with a lesser win. Sometimes, patience is after a virtue and should combat fear.
ReplyDeleteWonderful blog & good post.Its really helpful for me, awaiting for more new post. Keep Blogging!
ReplyDeleteMobile Locator India
Fear is certainly a motivator, Glen, I agree. I remember the day I met you and the day I found out that you owned 3 of my top 5 holy grails. Each year I asked you your pricing on those covers they were always just beyond my reach, and every year after that I would contact you when I finally got myself in a financial and physiological place where I was ready to pay your price, only to learn the price had changed and was now just beyond my reach again. When I finally decided that the memory was worth more to me than the money, I was able to buy. Top of the market or not, my only regret today is that I did not buy all 3 grails from you. I may have bought 2 out of the 3 out of "fear" I'd never see them again, but there has never been 1 minute since then that I regretted the price I paid for either one of those covers. And looking back, your first quote to me was a bargain, and your second quote to me was a bargain, and your third...
ReplyDeleteLove ya Glen! Colorado Kid